Prediction of social, psychological and situational factors of criminal thoughts and intents activation in information security

Abstract

In this paper proposed a method of evaluetion of information risk and a system of forecasting of social-psychological, situational factors, which are able to activate malicious intent. For identifing of the types of social and psychological adaptation of close environment and the world, authors propose to use transactional analysis. The basis of the forecasting system is a questionnaire of personal adaptations proposed by V. Joines (Joines Personality Adaptation Questionnaire, JPAQ). When in a person's life, «everything goes wrong» it increases the probability of using risk strategies to achieve the desired. Unconscious strategy are in the zone of asocial and antisocial actions outside the legal framework, healthy human relationships. Estimation of transition is in the field of achieving the desired «at any cost» is due to the definition of leading personal adaptations. «Transition» identity of views to the contingent scenarios of criminal intent and its implementation occur in actual life/professional situation that activates risk motivation. Assessment of the likely impact of socio-psychological and situational factors that are not understood by person, carried out by additional unit situational questions. The extension of economic cost models by the forecasting system of criminal intentions improves assessment of information risks, optimizes investments in information security, risk analyzes «transition» of rights of law-abiding citizen position to the position of the attacker.